Abstract: In this paper a combined physical?statistical approach for the downscaling of model wind speed is assessed. The key factor in this approach is the decomposition of the total error (model ? observation) into a small-scale ...

Abstract: Using a 20-yr ECMWF ensemble reforecast dataset of total precipitation and a 20-yr dataset of a dense precipitation observation network in the Netherlands, a comparison is made between the raw ensemble output, Bayesian ...

Abstract: The derivation and verification of logistic regression equations for the (conditional) probability of (severe) thunderstorms in the warm half-year (from mid-April to mid-October) in the Netherlands is described. For 12 ...

Abstract: The development and verification of a new model output statistics (MOS) system is described; this system is intended to help forecasters decide whether a weather alarm for severe thunderstorms, based on high total lightning ...