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RISInitial Conditions for Convective-Scale Ensemble Forecasting Provided by Ensemble Data Assimilation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: kilometer-scale ensemble data assimilation system (KENDA) based on a local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) has been developed for the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) limited-area model. The data ...
A Displacement-Based Error Measure Applied in a Regional Ensemble Forecasting System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Errors in regional forecasts often take the form of phase errors, where a forecasted weather system is displaced in space or time. For such errors, a direct measure of the displacement is likely to be more valuable than ...
A Displacement and Amplitude Score Employing an Optical Flow Technique
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A field verification measure for precipitation forecasts is presented that combines distance and amplitude errors. It is based on an optical flow algorithm that defines a vector field that deforms, or morphs, one image to ...
Evaluating High-Resolution Model Forecasts of European Winter Storms by Use of Satellite and Radar Observations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The forecasting performance of the operational Lokal Modell (LM) of the German Weather Service (DWD) is evaluated for two severe winter storms that crossed central Europe in December 1999. Synthetic satellite images ...
The Plant–Craig Stochastic Convection Scheme in ICON and Its Scale Adaptivity
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he emergence of numerical weather prediction and climate models with multiple or variable resolutions requires that their parameterizations adapt correctly, with consistent increases in variability as resolution increases. ...
Precipitation Sensitivity to the Uncertainty of Terrestrial Water Flow in WRF-Hydro: An Ensemble Analysis for Central Europe
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractPrecipitation is affected by soil moisture spatial variability. However, this variability is not well represented in atmospheric models that do not consider soil moisture transport as a three-dimensional process. ...
Classification of Warm-Season Precipitation in High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model Forecasts over the Contiguous United States
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
MAP D-PHASE: Real-Time Demonstration of Weather Forecast Quality in the Alpine Region
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Demonstration of probabilistic hydrological and atmospheric simulation of flood events in the Alpine region (D-PHASE) is made by the Forecast Demonstration Project in connection with the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). ...