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Predictability of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in the ECMWF Extended-Range Forecast System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThe skill of the Arctic stratospheric retrospective ensemble forecasts (hindcasts) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts extended-range system is analyzed with a focus on the predictability of ...
Arctic Stratosphere Dynamical Response to Global Warming
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThe role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming is investigated here by analyzing simulations performed with atmosphere-only models ...
Improving Antarctic Total Ozone Projections by a Process-Oriented Multiple Diagnostic Ensemble Regression
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ccurate projections of stratospheric ozone are required because ozone changes affect exposure to ultraviolet radiation and tropospheric climate. Unweighted multimodel ensemble-mean (uMMM) projections from chemistry?climate ...
Siberian snow forcing in a dynamically bias-corrected model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: We investigate the effect of systematic model biases on teleconnections influencing the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation. We perform a two-step nudging and bias-correcting scheme for the dynamic variables of the ...
Constraining Future Summer Austral Jet Stream Positions in the CMIP5 Ensemble by Process-Oriented Multiple Diagnostic Regression
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: tratospheric ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gases are anticipated to have a large impact on the Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation, shifting the jet stream and associated storm tracks. Models participating ...
Statistical Learning Methods as a Basis for Skillful Seasonal Temperature Forecasts in Europe
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractA statistical learning approach to produce seasonal temperature forecasts in western Europe and Scandinavia was implemented and tested. The leading principal components (PCs) of sea surface temperature (SST) and ...
Climate Impacts of the Southern Annular Mode Simulated by the CMIP3 Models
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The southern annular mode (SAM) has a well-established impact on climate in the Southern Hemisphere. The strongest response in surface air temperature (SAT) is observed in the Antarctic, but the SAM?s area of influence ...
Mixed Layer Temperature Response to the Southern Annular Mode: Mechanisms and Model Representation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Previous studies have shown that simulated sea surface temperature (SST) responses to the southern annular mode (SAM) in phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) climate models compare poorly to the ...
CORRIGENDUM
Publisher: American Meteorological Society