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    Predictability of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in the ECMWF Extended-Range Forecast System 

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2018:;volume 146:;issue 004:;page 1063
    Author(s): Karpechko, Alexey Yu.
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractThe skill of the Arctic stratospheric retrospective ensemble forecasts (hindcasts) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts extended-range system is analyzed with a focus on the predictability of ...
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    Arctic Stratosphere Dynamical Response to Global Warming 

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2017:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 017:;page 7071
    Author(s): Karpechko, Alexey Yu.;Manzini, Elisa
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractThe role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming is investigated here by analyzing simulations performed with atmosphere-only models ...
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    Improving Antarctic Total Ozone Projections by a Process-Oriented Multiple Diagnostic Ensemble Regression 

    Source: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences:;2013:;Volume( 070 ):;issue: 012:;page 3959
    Author(s): Karpechko, Alexey Yu.; Maraun, Douglas; Eyring, Veronika
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: ccurate projections of stratospheric ozone are required because ozone changes affect exposure to ultraviolet radiation and tropospheric climate. Unweighted multimodel ensemble-mean (uMMM) projections from chemistry?climate ...
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    Siberian snow forcing in a dynamically bias-corrected model 

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2020:;volume( ):;issue: -:;page 1
    Author(s): Tyrrell, Nicholas L.;Karpechko, Alexey Yu.;Rast, Sebastian
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: We investigate the effect of systematic model biases on teleconnections influencing the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation. We perform a two-step nudging and bias-correcting scheme for the dynamic variables of the ...
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    Constraining Future Summer Austral Jet Stream Positions in the CMIP5 Ensemble by Process-Oriented Multiple Diagnostic Regression 

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2015:;volume( 029 ):;issue: 002:;page 673
    Author(s): Wenzel, Sabrina; Eyring, Veronika; Gerber, Edwin P.; Karpechko, Alexey Yu.
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: tratospheric ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gases are anticipated to have a large impact on the Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation, shifting the jet stream and associated storm tracks. Models participating ...
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    Statistical Learning Methods as a Basis for Skillful Seasonal Temperature Forecasts in Europe 

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2019:;volume 032:;issue 017:;page 5363
    Author(s): Kämäräinen, Matti; Uotila, Petteri; Karpechko, Alexey Yu.; Hyvärinen, Otto; Lehtonen, Ilari; Räisänen, Jouni
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractA statistical learning approach to produce seasonal temperature forecasts in western Europe and Scandinavia was implemented and tested. The leading principal components (PCs) of sea surface temperature (SST) and ...
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    Climate Impacts of the Southern Annular Mode Simulated by the CMIP3 Models 

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2009:;volume( 022 ):;issue: 013:;page 3751
    Author(s): Karpechko, Alexey Yu; Gillett, Nathan P.; Marshall, Gareth J.; Screen, James A.
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: The southern annular mode (SAM) has a well-established impact on climate in the Southern Hemisphere. The strongest response in surface air temperature (SAT) is observed in the Antarctic, but the SAM?s area of influence ...
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    Mixed Layer Temperature Response to the Southern Annular Mode: Mechanisms and Model Representation 

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2010:;volume( 023 ):;issue: 003:;page 664
    Author(s): Screen, James A.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Karpechko, Alexey Yu; Stevens, David P.
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Previous studies have shown that simulated sea surface temperature (SST) responses to the southern annular mode (SAM) in phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) climate models compare poorly to the ...
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    CORRIGENDUM 

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2009:;volume( 022 ):;issue: 022:;page 6149
    Author(s): Karpechko, Alexey Yu; Gillett, Nathan P.; Marshall, Gareth J.; Screen, James A.
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
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