Abstract: AbstractThe skill of the Arctic stratospheric retrospective ensemble forecasts (hindcasts) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts extended-range system is analyzed with a focus on the predictability of ...

Abstract: AbstractThe role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming is investigated here by analyzing simulations performed with atmosphere-only models ...

Abstract: ccurate projections of stratospheric ozone are required because ozone changes affect exposure to ultraviolet radiation and tropospheric climate. Unweighted multimodel ensemble-mean (uMMM) projections from chemistry?climate ...

Abstract: We investigate the effect of systematic model biases on teleconnections influencing the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation. We perform a two-step nudging and bias-correcting scheme for the dynamic variables of the ...

Abstract: tratospheric ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gases are anticipated to have a large impact on the Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation, shifting the jet stream and associated storm tracks. Models participating ...

Abstract: AbstractA statistical learning approach to produce seasonal temperature forecasts in western Europe and Scandinavia was implemented and tested. The leading principal components (PCs) of sea surface temperature (SST) and ...

Abstract: The southern annular mode (SAM) has a well-established impact on climate in the Southern Hemisphere. The strongest response in surface air temperature (SAT) is observed in the Antarctic, but the SAM?s area of influence ...

Abstract: Previous studies have shown that simulated sea surface temperature (SST) responses to the southern annular mode (SAM) in phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) climate models compare poorly to the ...