Abstract: The large-scale forcing associated with 20 mesoscale convective system (MCS) events has been evaluated to determine how the magnitude of that forcing influences the rainfall forecasts made with a 10-km grid spacing version ...

Abstract: In the current study, a technique that offers a way to evaluate ensemble forecast uncertainties produced either by initial conditions or different model versions, or both, is presented. The technique consists of first ...

Abstract: Warm season convective system rainfall forecasts remain a particularly difficult forecast challenge. For these events, it is possible that ensemble forecasts would provide helpful information unavailable in a single ...

Abstract: To assist in optimizing a mixed-physics ensemble for warm season mesoscale convective system rainfall forecasting, the impact of various physical schemes as well as their interactions on rainfall when different initializations ...

Abstract: The most significant precipitation events in California occur during the winter and are often related to synoptic-scale storms from the Pacific Ocean. Because of the terrain characteristics and the fact that the urban and ...

Abstract: Numerical prediction of precipitation associated with five cool-season atmospheric river events in northern California was analyzed and compared to observations. The model simulations were performed by using the Advanced ...

Abstract: In recent years, a mixed-physics ensemble approach has been investigated as a method to better predict mesoscale convective system (MCS) rainfall. For both mixed-physics ensemble design and interpretation, knowledge of the ...

Abstract: AbstractTraditional ensemble probabilities are computed based on the number of members that exceed a threshold at a given point divided by the total number of members. This approach has been employed for many years in ...