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RISA Test of Emergent Constraints on Cloud Feedback and Climate Sensitivity Using a Calibrated Single-Model Ensemble
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractA calibrated single-model ensemble (SME) derived from the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.1, is used to test two hypothesized emergent constraints on cloud feedback and equilibrium climate sensitivity ...
Using Single-Forcing GCM Simulations to Reconstruct and Interpret Quaternary Climate Change
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he long-term climate variations of the Quaternary were primarily influenced by concurrent changes in Earth?s orbit, greenhouse gases, and ice sheets. However, because climate changes over the coming century will largely ...
Error Reduction and Convergence in Climate Prediction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Although climate models have steadily improved their ability to reproduce the observed climate, over the years there has been little change to the wide range of sensitivities exhibited by different models to a doubling of ...
Multidataset Study of Optimal Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation of a Land Surface Model with Bayesian Stochastic Inversion and Multicriteria Method
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This study evaluates the ability of Bayesian stochastic inversion (BSI) and multicriteria (MC) methods to search for the optimal parameter sets of the Chameleon Surface Model (CHASM) using prescribed forcing to simulate ...
Polynomial Chaos–Based Bayesian Inference of K-Profile Parameterization in a General Circulation Model of the Tropical Pacific
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he authors present a polynomial chaos (PC)?based Bayesian inference method for quantifying the uncertainties of the K-profile parameterization (KPP) within the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) of the tropical Pacific. ...