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RISLong-Lead Forecasts of Seasonal Precipitation in the Tropical Pacific Islands Using CCA
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A potentially operational system for 3-month total precipitation forecasts for island stations in the tropical Pacific has been developed at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center using the statistical method of canonical ...
Skill of Canonical Correlation Analysis Forecasts of 3-Month Mean Surface Climate in Hawaii and Alaska
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Statistical short-term climate predictive skills and their sources for 3-month mean local surface climate (temperature and precipitation) in Hawaii and Alaska have been explored at lead times of up to one year using a ...
Predictive Skill of Statistical and Dynamical Climate Models in SST Forecasts during the 1997—98 El Niño Episode and the 1998 La Niña Onset
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Critical reviews of forecasts of ENSO conditions, based on a set of 15 dynamical and statistical models, are given for the 1997?98 El Niño event and the initial stages of the 1998?99 La Niña. While many of the models ...
A Forecast Product that Maximizes Utility for State–of–the–Art Seasonal Climate Prediction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The prediction of seasonal climate anomalies at useful lead times often involves an unfavorable signal?to?noise ratio. The forecasts, while consequently tending to have modest skill, nonetheless have significant utility ...
Regional Climate–Weather Research and Forecasting Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: is developed as a climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) by incorporating numerous improvements in the representation of physical processes and integration of external (top, surface, lateral) ...