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RISComparing and Combining Deterministic Surface Temperature Postprocessing Methods over the United States
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Comments on “Calibrated Surface Temperature Forecasts from the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System Using Bayesian Model Averaging”
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Verification of TIGGE Multimodel and ECMWF Reforecast-Calibrated Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts over the Contiguous United States
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: robabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) were generated from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) database from July to October ...
Corrigendum
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Reliability Diagrams for Multicategory Probabilistic Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The most common method of verifying multicategory probabilistic forecasts such as are used in probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting is through the use of the ranked probability score. This single number ...
Changes in the Systematic Errors of Global Reforecasts due to an Evolving Data Assimilation System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractA global reforecast dataset was recently created for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction?s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). This reforecast dataset consists of retrospective and real-time ...
Hypothesis Tests for Evaluating Numerical Precipitation Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: When evaluating differences between competing precipitation forecasts, formal hypothesis testing is rarely performed. This may be due to the difficulty in applying common tests given the spatial correlation of and non-normality ...
Interpretation of Rank Histograms for Verifying Ensemble Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Rank histograms are a tool for evaluating ensemble forecasts. They are useful for determining the reliability of ensemble forecasts and for diagnosing errors in its mean and spread. Rank histograms are generated by repeatedly ...
Performance of Operational Model Precipitation Forecast Guidance during the 2013 Colorado Front-Range Floods
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: uring the period 9?16 September 2013, more than 17 in. (~432 mm) of rainfall fell over parts of Boulder County, Colorado, with more than 8 in. (~203 mm) over a wide swath of Colorado?s northern Front Range. This caused ...