Abstract: The potential predictability of the Indian summer monsoon due to slowly varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcing is examined. Factors responsible for limiting the predictability are also investigated. Three multiyear ...

Abstract: A conceptual model for the origin of the tropospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is presented. It is argued that the tropospheric QBO may not be a fundamental mode of oscillation of the tropical coupled system. It ...

Abstract: No abstract available

Abstract: A mechanism is proposed that can sustain unstable equatorially trapped westward-propagating low-frequency modes in the tropics. The roles of evaporation?wind feedback and wave?CISK (convergence feedback) in modifying the ...

Abstract: The predictability and variability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model has been investigated by examining the growth of small initial perturbations during the evolution of the coupled system. The ocean model is first ...

Abstract: Change in significance and multidecadal variability of the Northern Hemispheric winter MJO during 1948?2006 is examined using NCEP?NCAR reanalysis data. Variation of the MJO power relative to a red background is estimated ...

Abstract: Empirical evidence is presented to support a hypothesis that the interdecadal variation of the Indian summer monsoon and that of the tropical SST are parts of a tropical coupled ocean?atmosphere mode. The interdecadal ...

Abstract: The finite predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is determined by its aperiodic variability. To gain insight regarding the predictability of such a system, a series of diagnostic studies has been carried ...

Abstract: A physically based empirical real-time forecasting strategy to predict the subseasonal variations of the Indian summer monsoon up to four?five pentads (20?25 days) in advance has been developed. The method is based on the ...

Abstract: The link between realism in simulation of the seasonal mean precipitation and summer tropical intraseasonal oscillations and their dependence on cumulus parameterization schemes is investigated using the Florida State ...