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Toward 1-km ensemble forecasts over large domains

Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2017:;volume( 145 ):;issue: 008:;page 2943

Author(s): Schwartz, Craig S.; Romine, Glen S.; Fossell, Kathryn R.; Sobash, Ryan A.; Weisman, Morris L.

Publisher: American Meteorological Society

Abstract: recipitation forecasts from convection-allowing ensembles with 3- and 1-km horizontal grid spacing were evaluated between 15 May and 15 June 2013 over central and eastern portions of the United States. Probabilistic forecasts ...

NCAR’s Experimental Real-Time Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System

Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2015:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 006:;page 1645

Author(s): Schwartz, Craig S.; Romine, Glen S.; Sobash, Ryan A.; Fossell, Kathryn R.; Weisman, Morris L.

Publisher: American Meteorological Society

Abstract: his expository paper documents an experimental, real-time, 10-member, 3-km, convection-allowing ensemble prediction system (EPS) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in spring 2015. The EPS is ...

Severe Weather Prediction Using Storm Surrogates from an Ensemble Forecasting System

Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2015:;volume( 031 ):;issue: 001:;page 255

Author(s): Sobash, Ryan A.; Schwartz, Craig S.; Romine, Glen S.; Fossell, Kathryn R.; Weisman, Morris L.

Publisher: American Meteorological Society

Abstract: robabilistic severe weather forecasts for days 1 and 2 were produced using 30-member convection-allowing ensemble forecasts initialized by an ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation system during a 32-day period coinciding ...

The Practical Predictability of Storm Tide from Tropical Cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico

Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2017:;volume( 145 ):;issue: 012:;page 5103

Author(s): Fossell, Kathryn R.;Ahijevych, David;Morss, Rebecca E.;Snyder, Chris;Davis, Chris

Publisher: American Meteorological Society

Abstract: AbstractThe potential for storm surge to cause extensive property damage and loss of life has increased urgency to more accurately predict coastal flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones. This work investigates ...

Enhancing the Student Experience with Numerical Weather Prediction: Advantages of Integrating Container and Cloud Technologies into Course Curricula

Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;2022:;volume( 103 ):;issue: 002

Author(s): Wolff, Jamie K.;Fossell, Kathryn R.;Harrold, Michelle;Kavulich, Michael;Gotway, John Halley

Publisher: American Meteorological Society

Representing Forecast Error in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble System

Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2014:;volume( 142 ):;issue: 012:;page 4519

Author(s): Romine, Glen S.; Schwartz, Craig S.; Berner, Judith; Fossell, Kathryn R.; Snyder, Chris; Anderson, Jeff L.; Weisman, Morris L.

Publisher: American Meteorological Society

Abstract: nsembles provide an opportunity to greatly improve short-term prediction of local weather hazards, yet generating reliable predictions remain a significant challenge. In particular, convection-permitting ensemble forecast ...

A Real-Time Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System Initialized by Mesoscale Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses

Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2015:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 005:;page 1158

Author(s): Schwartz, Craig S.; Romine, Glen S.; Weisman, Morris L.; Sobash, Ryan A.; Fossell, Kathryn R.; Manning, Kevin W.; Trier, Stanley B.

Publisher: American Meteorological Society

Abstract: n May and June 2013, the National Center for Atmospheric Research produced real-time 48-h convection-allowing ensemble forecasts at 3-km horizontal grid spacing using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in ...

NCAR’s Real-Time Convection-Allowing Ensemble Project

Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;2018:;volume 100:;issue 002:;page 321

Author(s): Schwartz, Craig S.; Romine, Glen S.; Sobash, Ryan A.; Fossell, Kathryn R.; Weisman, Morris L.

Publisher: American Meteorological Society

Abstract: AbstractBeginning 7 April 2015, scientists at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) began producing daily, real-time, experimental, 10-member ensemble forecasts with 3-km horizontal grid spacing across ...

The Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE) in the 2016 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment

Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;2018:;volume 099:;issue 007:;page 1433

Author(s): Clark, Adam J.; Jirak, Israel L.; Dembek, Scott R.; Creager, Gerry J.; Kong, Fanyou; Thomas, Kevin W.; Knopfmeier, Kent H.; Gallo, Burkely T.; Melick, Christopher J.; Xue, Ming; Brewster, Keith A.; Jung, Youngsun; Kennedy, Aaron; Dong, Xiquan; Markel, Joshua; Gilmore, Matthew; Romine, Glen S.; Fossell, Kathryn R.; Sobash, Ryan A.; Carley, Jacob R.; Ferrier, Brad S.; Pyle, Matthew; Alexander, Curtis R.; Weiss, Steven J.; Kain, John S.; Wicker, Louis J.; Thompson, Gregory; Adams-Selin, Rebecca D.; Imy, David A.

Publisher: American Meteorological Society

Abstract: AbstractOne primary goal of annual Spring Forecasting Experiments (SFEs), which are coorganized by NOAA?s National Severe Storms Laboratory and Storm Prediction Center and conducted in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric ...