Abstract: This article proposes a method for verifying deterministic forecasts of rare, extreme events defined by exceedance above a high threshold. A probability model for the joint distribution of forecasts and observations, and ...

Abstract: This article considers the Brier score for verifying ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts of binary events. New estimators for the effect of ensemble size on the expected Brier score, and associated confidence intervals, ...

Abstract: erifying forecasts of rare events is challenging, in part because traditional performance measures degenerate to trivial values as events become rarer. The extreme dependency score was proposed recently as a nondegenerating ...

Abstract: Anthropogenic influences are expected to cause the probability distribution of weather variables to change in nontrivial ways. This study presents simple nonparametric methods for exploring and comparing differences in ...

Abstract: ct available.

Abstract: The seasonal predictability of cold spring seasons (March?May) in Europe from hindcasts/forecasts of three operational coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) is investigated. The models used in the investigation are ...

Abstract: Probabilistic forecasts of atmospheric variables are often given as relative frequencies obtained from ensembles of deterministic forecasts. The detrimental effects of imperfect models and initial conditions on the quality ...

Abstract: uture climate change projections are often derived from ensembles of simulations from multiple global circulation models using heuristic weighting schemes. This study provides a more rigorous justification for this by ...

Abstract: The clustering in time (seriality) of extratropical cyclones is responsible for large cumulative insured losses in western Europe, though surprisingly little scientific attention has been given to this important property. ...