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RISSensitivity of Convection-Allowing Forecasts to Land Surface Model Perturbations and Implications for Ensemble Design
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n this exploratory study, a series of perturbations to the land surface model (LSM) component of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was developed to investigate the sensitivity of forecasts of severe thunderstorms ...
Spring and Summer Midwestern Severe Weather Reports in Supercells Compared to Other Morphologies
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This study compares severe weather reports associated with the nine convective system morphologies used in a recent study by Gallus et al. to an additional morphology, supercell storms. As in that previous study, all ...
The Impact of Large-Scale Forcing on Skill of Simulated Convective Initiation and Upscale Evolution with Convection-Allowing Grid Spacings in the WRF
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: set of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with 3-km grid spacing to investigate the skill at predicting convective initiation and upscale evolution into an ...
Large-Sample Application of Radar Reflectivity Object-Based Verification to Evaluate HRRR Warm-Season Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Using Object-Based Verification to Assess Improvements in Forecasts of Convective Storms between Operational HRRR Versions 3 and 4
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Using Varied Microphysics to Account for Uncertainty in Warm-Season QPF in a Convection-Allowing Ensemble
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: wo approaches for accounting for errors in quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) due to uncertainty in the microphysics (MP) parameterization in a convection-allowing ensemble are examined. They include mixed MP (MMP) ...
Impact of a Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter Scheme on Warm Season Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he efficacy of a stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB) scheme to improve convection-allowing probabilistic forecasts was studied. While SKEB has been explored for coarse, convection-parameterizing models, studies ...
Comparing the Assimilation of Radar Reflectivity Using the Direct GSI-Based Ensemble–Variational (EnVar) and Indirect Cloud Analysis Methods in Convection-Allowing Forecasts over the Continental United States
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractTwo methods for assimilating radar reflectivity into deterministic convection-allowing forecasts were compared: an operationally used, computationally less expensive cloud analysis (CA) scheme and a relatively more ...