Abstract: The variability of the Australian summer monsoon is reexamined using data covering 35 monsoon seasons. A new, easily applied objective definition of active and break phases of the monsoon, based solely on the zonal wind ...

Abstract: A nonlinear time series forecasting scheme developed by Sugihara and May has been applied to the Southern Oscillation index. Although forecast skill is comparable only to persistence or linear (autoregressive) methods, the ...

Abstract: The response of the tropospheric circulation over Australia and the southwest Pacific to extremes of the Southern Oscillation is documented using correlation, regression, and compositing techniques applied to seasonal means ...

Abstract: forecast product focusing on the onset of the north Australian wet season using a dynamical ocean?atmosphere model is developed and verified. Onset is defined to occur when a threshold rainfall accumulation of 50 mm is ...

Abstract: An operational system for the prediction of Australian seasonal rainfall variations using sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) patterns over the Indian and Pacific Oceans is described. The SSTA patterns are represented ...

Abstract: North Australian Clouds Lines are distinctive, squall-line phenomena that occur in easterly flow across northern Australia. Three basic types have been identified, ranging from a long, narrow line of convective clouds (Type ...

Abstract: The onset of the Australian monsoon is examined using (i) reanalysis data for seasons when enhanced observational networks were available and (ii) a 15-yr onset composite. Similar to previous findings, onset is characterized ...

Abstract: An evaluation of trial seasonal forecasts during the 1997/98 El Niño, using an atmospheric GCM forced by persisted sea surface temperature and sea-ice anomalies, is presented. Generally, forecasts of seasonal anomalies of ...