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RISAnalytical Tropical Cyclone Asymmetric Circulation for Barotropic Model Initial Conditions
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The flow field around a tropical cyclone can be decomposed into the symmetric vortex, an environmental steering flow, and an asymmetric circulation that is the residual after the first two components are removed. In a ...
Models of Tropical Cyclone Wind Distribution and Beta-Effect Propagation for Application to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A model of the tangential wind speed in the outer regions of tropical cyclones is proposed based on approximate conservation of angular momentum. The purpose is to derive an operationally useful model of the beta-effect ...
Monsoonal Interactions Leading to Sudden Tropical Cyclone Track Changes
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Sudden poleward track changes of tropical cyclones embedded in monsoon gyres in the western North Pacific are documented. During these track changes, which are generally not well forecast, the cyclones are often accompanied ...
Consensus of Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts—Errors versus Spread
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The relationships between consensus spread of five dynamical model tracks and the consensus mean error is explored for a western North Pacific tropical cyclone database of 381 cases. Whereas a small spread of the five ...
Objective Diagnosis of Binary Tropical Cyclone Interactions forthe Western North Pacific Basin
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Objective criteria for distinguishing among three modes of binary tropical cyclone (TC) interactions (TCI) are defined and tested with an eight-year sample of western North Pacific TCs. These objective criteria lead to an ...
Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors. Part II: Midlatitude Circulation Influences
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: All highly erroneous (>300 n mi or 555 km at 72 h) Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) and U.S. Navy version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model (GFDN) tropical cyclone track ...
Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors. Part I: Tropical Region Error Sources
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: All highly erroneous (>300 n mi or 555 km at 72 h) Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) and U.S. Navy version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model (GFDN) tropical cyclone track ...
Observational Evidence for Alternate Modes of Track-Altering Binary Tropical Cyclone Scenarios
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An observational study of western North Pacific tropical cyclones (TC) revealed many cases of two TCs whose tracks were altered by processes that were quite different from the mutual advection (Fujiwhara-type) processes. ...
Beta Test of the Systematic Approach Expert System Prototype as a Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Aid
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The authors have developed error mechanism conceptual models with characteristic track departures and anomalous wind or sea level pressure patterns for dynamical tropical cyclone track predictions primarily occurring in ...
A Simple Statistical-Synoptic Track Prediction Technique for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A simple statistical-synoptic technique for tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting to 72 h in the western North Pacific is derived. This technique applies to the standard (S) pattern/dominant ridge region (S/DR) and ...