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RISDynamic Control Thresholds for Consistent Earned Value Analysis and Reliable Early Warning
Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
Abstract: Earned value management (EVM) facilitates practicing management-by-exception by triggering control actions only when they are needed. The efficiency and effectiveness of project control actions are influenced by the control ...
Probabilistic Evaluation of Cost Performance Stability in Earned Value Management
Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
Abstract: Credibility of cost performance analyses and forecasts for effective control of construction projects depends on the stability of the cost performance index (CPI) as a leading indicator of future performance. This paper ...
Probabilistic Evaluation of Cost Performance Stability in Earned Value Management
Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
Abstract: Credibility of cost performance analyses and forecasts for effective control of construction projects depends on the stability of the cost performance index (CPI) as a leading indicator of future performance. This paper ...
Cost Performance as a Stochastic Process: EAC Projection by Markov Chain Simulation
Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
Abstract: Earned value analysis (EVA) has been widely used in the construction industry for cost prediction at completion. The EVA’s accuracy of early cost projections is low since the method assumes static cost performance during ...
Probabilistic Forecasting of Project Duration Using Bayesian Inference and the Beta Distribution
Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
Abstract: Reliable forecasting is instrumental in successful project management. In order to ensure the successful completion of a project, the project manager constantly monitors actual performance and updates the current predictions ...
Probabilistic Forecasting of Project Duration Using Kalman Filter and the Earned Value Method
Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
Abstract: The earned value method (EVM) is recognized as a viable method for evaluating and forecasting project cost performance. However, its application to schedule performance forecasting has been limited due to poor accuracy in ...
Combination of Project Cost Forecasts in Earned Value Management
Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
Abstract: Reliable cost estimates are essential for effective project control and the management of cash flows within the project and at the company level. Conventional approaches to project cost forecasting, which rely on detailed ...
Sensitivity of Earned Value Schedule Forecasting to S-Curve Patterns
Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
Abstract: This paper examines sensitivity of the performance of seven project duration forecasting methods in the earned value management (EVM) literature to characteristic patterns of planned value and earned value S-curves. ...
What CPI = 0.85 Really Means: A Probabilistic Extension of the Estimate at Completion
Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
Abstract: This paper investigates the predictive power of project cost data in earned value management (EVM) as an early indicator of the cost overrun probability in risk management. The predictive power of the cost performance index ...
Credibility Evaluation of Project Duration Forecast Using Forecast Sensitivity and Forecast-Risk Compatibility
Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
Abstract: This paper presents a credibility evaluation framework (CEF) that analytically evaluates deterministic project duration forecasts to detect false early warnings and misleading trends. The CEF consists of forecast sensitivity ...