Abstract: Performance measures computed from the 2 ? 2 contingency table of outcomes for dichotomous forecasts are sensitive to bias. The method presented here evaluates how the probability of detection (POD) must change as bias ...

Abstract: he gradient wind is defined as a horizontal wind having the same direction as the geostrophic wind but with a magnitude consistent with a balance of three forces: the pressure gradient force, the Coriolis force, and the ...

Abstract: Critical performance ratio (CPR) expressions for the eight conditional probabilities associated with the 2 ? 2 contingency table of outcomes for binary (dichotomous ?yes? or ?no?) forecasts are derived. Two are shown to ...

Abstract: Bias-adjusted threat and equitable threat scores were designed to account for the effects of placement errors in assessing the performance of under- or overbiased forecasts. These bias-adjusted performance measures exhibit ...

Abstract: A fair comparison of quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) products from multiple forecast sources using performance metrics based on a 2 ? 2 contingency table with assessment of statistical significance of differences ...

Abstract: Numerical forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction?s mesoscale version of the ? coordinate?based model, hereafter referred to as MESO, have been analyzed to study the roles of conditional symmetric ...

Abstract: A model simulation of the rapid development phase of the Presidents' Day cyclone of 19 February 1979 is analyzed in an effort to complement and extend a diagnostic analysis based only on 12-h radiosonde data over the ...

Abstract: n objective technique to determine forecast snowfall ranges consistent with the risk tolerance of users is demonstrated. The forecast snowfall ranges are based on percentiles from probability distribution functions that ...

Abstract: his article explores the potential advantages of using a clustering approach to distill information contained within a large ensemble of forecasts in the medium-range time frame. A divisive clustering algorithm based on ...