Search
CSV
RISDiurnal Variation of the Trade-Wind Boundary Layer
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Cloud fraction observations and trade-wind inversion base heights from both GATE and the undisturbed period of ATEX are examined for diurnal variation. The cloud fraction tends to be larger in the morning than in the ...
A General Analytic Method for Assessing Sensitivity to Bias of Performance Measures for Dichotomous Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Performance measures computed from the 2 ? 2 contingency table of outcomes for dichotomous forecasts are sensitive to bias. The method presented here evaluates how the probability of detection (POD) must change as bias ...
Revisiting an Old Concept: The Gradient Wind
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he gradient wind is defined as a horizontal wind having the same direction as the geostrophic wind but with a magnitude consistent with a balance of three forces: the pressure gradient force, the Coriolis force, and the ...
The Response of Performance Metrics for Binary Forecasts to Hedging that Approaches Random Change
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Critical performance ratio (CPR) expressions for the eight conditional probabilities associated with the 2 ? 2 contingency table of outcomes for binary (dichotomous ?yes? or ?no?) forecasts are derived. Two are shown to ...
Applying a General Analytic Method for Assessing Bias Sensitivity to Bias-Adjusted Threat and Equitable Threat Scores
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Bias-adjusted threat and equitable threat scores were designed to account for the effects of placement errors in assessing the performance of under- or overbiased forecasts. These bias-adjusted performance measures exhibit ...
Reply
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Confidence Interval Estimation for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) Using Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF)
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) at the NCEP has produced a suite of deterministic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for over 40 yr. While the operational forecasts have proven to be useful in their ...
A Comparison of Two Methods for Bias Correcting Precipitation Skill Scores
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A fair comparison of quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) products from multiple forecast sources using performance metrics based on a 2 ? 2 contingency table with assessment of statistical significance of differences ...
Evolution of Slantwise Vertical Motions in NCEP’s Mesoscale Eta Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Numerical forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction?s mesoscale version of the ? coordinate?based model, hereafter referred to as MESO, have been analyzed to study the roles of conditional symmetric ...
A Model-Based Diagnostic Study of the Rapid Development Phase of the Presidents's Day Cyclone
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A model simulation of the rapid development phase of the Presidents' Day cyclone of 19 February 1979 is analyzed in an effort to complement and extend a diagnostic analysis based only on 12-h radiosonde data over the ...