Abstract: An important aspect of ensemble forecasting is that the resulting probabilities are reliable (i.e., the forecast probabilities match the observed frequencies). In the medium-range forecasting context, the literature tends ...

Abstract: Given an accurate representation of errors in observations it is possible to remove the effect of those errors from categorical verification scores. The errors in the observations are treated as additive white noise that ...

Abstract: A new approach to probabilistic forecasting is proposed, based on the generation of an ensemble of equally likely analyses of the current state of the atmosphere. The rationale behind this approach is to mimic a poor man?s ...

Abstract: he Met Office has developed an ensemble-variational data assimilation method (hybrid-4DEnVar) as a potential replacement for the hybrid four-dimensional variational data assimilation (hybrid-4DVar), which is the current ...