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RISGLOBAL REAL-DATA FORECASTS WITH THE NCAR TWO-LAYER GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A number of global real-data numerical forecasts have been calculated using the two-layer NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) general circulation model. The purpose of these experiments was threefold: 1) to ...
Numerical Extended-Range Prediction: Forecast Skill Using a Low-Resolution Climate Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A pilot study that evaluates the potential forecast skill of winter 10?30-day time-mean flow from a low-resolution (R15) climate simulation model is presented. The hypothesis tested is that low-resolution climate model ...
APPLICATION OF A DIAGNOSTIC NUMERICAL MODEL TO THE TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A diagnostic, nonlinear balanced model is applied in order to describe numerically the three dimensional structure of the tropical atmosphere. Several comparisons and experiments are made to gain insight into the physical ...
Further Experimentation with an Imposed Southern Boundary for Large-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Experiments with a global, 2½° primitive equation model show that for periods of one week a wall placed at the equator does not appreciably affect the results of a forecast of large-scale mid-latitude atmospheric flows. ...
On the Effects of an Imposed Southern Boundary on Numerical Weather Prediction in the Northern Hemisphere
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An attempt is made to investigate the effect of the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere on Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude numerical forecasting. Using the NCAR general circulation model and real atmospheric data for ...
On the Verification of Seasonal Climate Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Readily available forecasts of winter season temperature anomalies for the continental United States are analyzed and compared to the observed anomalies for each of the past five winter seasons. Forcast skill is evaluated ...
Estimates of the Predictability of Low-Frequency Variability with a Spectral General Circulation Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This paper presents the results of an ensemble of 20 predictability experiments derived from the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM). Particular emphasis is placed on the question of the predictability of dynamically driven ...
Initial Weather Regimes as Predictors of Numerical 30-Day Mean Forecast Accuracy
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A set of thirty 30-day mean 500-mb height anomaly forecasts run from National Meteorological Center initial analyses by the NCAR Community Climate Model is examined in order to learn if the forecast accuracy can be estimated ...
The Initial Structure and Resulting Error Growth in the NCAR GCM Produced by Simulated, Remotely Sensed Temperature Profiles
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The error produced by an observational system of remotely sensed temperature profiles is partially simulated with aid of an operational retrieval scheme. A given temperature distribution is converted to radiances and then ...