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RISAssessing the Usefulness of Probabilistic Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The errors in both the initialization and simulated evolution of weather and climate models create significant uncertainties in forecasts at lead times beyond a few days. Modern prediction systems sample the sources of ...
Forecasting with Reference to a Specific Climatology
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: easonal forecasts are most commonly issued as anomalies with respect to some multiyear reference period. However, different seasonal forecasting centers use different reference periods. This paper shows that for near-surface ...
Sampling Errors in Seasonal Forecasting
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The limited numbers of start dates and ensemble sizes in seasonal forecasts lead to sampling errors in predictions. Defining the magnitude of these sampling errors would be useful for end users as well as informing decisions ...
A New Approach to Streaming Data from the Cloud
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractEnvironmental datasets are becoming so large that they are increasingly being hosted in the compute cloud, where they can be efficiently analyzed and disseminated. However, this necessitates new ways of efficiently ...
The Benefits of Multianalysis and Poor Man’s Ensembles
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A new approach to probabilistic forecasting is proposed, based on the generation of an ensemble of equally likely analyses of the current state of the atmosphere. The rationale behind this approach is to mimic a poor man?s ...
Skillful Seasonal Forecasts of Winter Disruption to the U.K. Transport System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he impacts of winter weather on transport networks have been highlighted by various high-profile disruptions to road, rail, and air transport in the United Kingdom during recent winters. Recent advances in the predictability ...
Evaluation of Probabilistic Quality and Value of the ENSEMBLES Multimodel Seasonal Forecasts: Comparison with DEMETER
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The performance of the new multimodel seasonal prediction system developed in the framework of the European Commission FP7 project called ENSEMBLE-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts (ENSEMBLES) is ...
Using a Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter Scheme to Improve MOGREPS Probabilistic Forecast Skill
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n improved stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme, version 2 (SKEB2) has been developed for the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). Wind increments at each model time step are derived ...
The Influence of Surface Forcings on Prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation Regime of Winter 2010/11
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ecember 2010 was unusual both in the strength of the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) intense atmospheric blocking and the associated record-breaking low temperatures over much of northern Europe. The negative ...
A Bayesian Framework for Verification and Recalibration of Ensemble Forecasts: How Uncertain is NAO Predictability?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: redictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain because of limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper proposes a Bayesian inferential framework that ...