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RISA Cyclogenesis Evolving into Two Distinct Scenarios and Its Implications for Short-Term Ensemble Forecasting
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: In a nonlinear quasigeostrophic model with uniform potential vorticity, an idealized initial state sharing some features with atmospheric low-predictability situations is built. Inspired by previous work on idealized ...
A Wavelet Representation of Synoptic-Scale Coherent Structures
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Midlatitude cyclogenesis as interpreted in the framework of either baroclinic development or potential vorticity thinking heavily relies on the concept of synoptic-scale anomaly. Given the existence of potential vorticity ...
The North Atlantic Oscillation Response to Large-Scale Atmospheric Anomalies in the Northeastern Pacific
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ngredients in the North Pacific flow influencing Rossby wave breakings in the North Atlantic and the intraseasonal variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are investigated using both reanalysis data and a ...
Calibrated Forecasts of Extreme Windstorms Using the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift of Tails (SOT)
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his study presents a method that improves extreme windstorm early warning in regards to past events that hit France during the last 30 years. From a 21-member ensemble forecast, the extreme forecast index (EFI) and the ...
Detection of Severe Weather Events in a High-Resolution Ensemble Prediction System Using the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift of Tails (SOT)
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThe extreme forecast index (EFI) and shift of tails (SOT) are commonly used to compare an ensemble forecast to a reference model climatology, in order to measure the severity of the current weather forecast. In ...
The Link between the North Pacific Climate Variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation via Downstream Propagation of Synoptic Waves
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) response to the northeast Pacific climate variability is examined using the ERA-40 dataset. The main objective is to validate a mechanism involving downstream wave propagation processes ...
About the Reliability of Manual Model PV Corrections to Improve Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he National Weather Forecast Centre of Météo-France has developed a tool that corrects the state of the atmosphere within the Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle (ARPEGE) operational global model by adjusting ...
Role of Moist Processes in the Tracks of Idealized Midlatitude Surface Cyclones
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he effects of moist processes on the tracks of midlatitude surface cyclones are studied by performing idealized mesoscale simulations. In each simulation, a finite-amplitude surface cyclone is initialized on the warm-air ...
Dynamical and Physical Processes Leading to Tropical Cyclone Intensification under Upper-Level Trough Forcing
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he rapid intensification of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Dora (2007, southwest Indian Ocean) under upper-level trough forcing is investigated. TC?trough interaction is simulated using a limited-area operational numerical weather ...
Microphysics Impacts on the Warm Conveyor Belt and Ridge Building of the NAWDEX IOP6 Cyclone
Publisher: American Meteorological Society