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RISIndian Ocean Variability and Its Association with ENSO in a Global Coupled Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The evolution of the Indian Ocean during El Niño?Southern Oscillation is investigated in a 100-yr integration of an Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled seasonal forecast model. During El Niño, easterly anomalies are ...
An Ensemble Ocean Data Assimilation System for Seasonal Prediction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A new ensemble ocean data assimilation system, developed for the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), is described. The new system is called PEODAS, the POAMA Ensemble Ocean Data Assimilation System. ...
An Enhanced Moisture Convergence–Evaporation Feedback Mechanism for MJO Air–Sea Interaction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Simulations using an atmospheric model forced with observed SST climatology and the same atmospheric model coupled to a slab-ocean model are used to investigate the role of air?sea interaction on the dynamics of the MJO. ...
Variations of Upper-Ocean Salinity Associated with ENSO from PEODAS Reanalyses
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: nterannual variations of upper-ocean salinity in the tropical Pacific and relationships with ENSO are investigated using the Bureau of Meteorology (Australia) POAMA Ensemble Ocean Data Assimilation System (PEODAS) reanalyses. ...
The Role of Stochastic Forcing in Ensemble Forecasts of the 1997/98 El Niño
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The impact of stochastic intraseasonal variability on the onset of the 1997/98 El Niño was examined using a large ensemble of forecasts starting on 1 December 1996, produced using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology ...
Dynamical Forecast of Inter–El Niño Variations of Tropical SST and Australian Spring Rainfall
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The relationship between variations of Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and Australian springtime rainfall over the last 30 years is investigated with a focus on predictability of inter?El Niño variations of ...
Dynamical, Statistical–Dynamical, and Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts of Australian Spring Season Rainfall
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The prediction skill of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology dynamical seasonal forecast model Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) is assessed for probabilistic forecasts of spring season rainfall in ...
Improving Intraseasonal Prediction with a New Ensemble Generation Strategy
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he Australian Bureau of Meteorology has recently enhanced its capability to make coupled model forecasts of intraseasonal climate variations. The Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA, version 2) seasonal ...
How Predictable is the Indian Ocean Dipole?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n light of the growing recognition of the role of surface temperature variations in the Indian Ocean for driving global climate variability, the predictive skill of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated ...
Impact of Salinity Constraints on the Simulated Mean State and Variability in a Coupled Seasonal Forecast Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he authors assess the sensitivity of the simulated mean state and coupled variability to systematic initial state salinity errors in seasonal forecasts using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Predictive Ocean Atmosphere ...