Abstract: The relative importance of initial conditions and boundary conditions in interannual to decadal climate predictability is addressed. A simple framework is developed in which (i) ensembles of climate model simulations with ...

Abstract: A tropospheric energy budget argument is used to analyze twentieth-century precipitation changes. It is found that global and ocean-mean general circulation model (GCM) precipitation changes can be understood as being due ...

Abstract: Singular systems (or singular spectrum) analysis (SSA) was originally proposed for noise reduction in the analysis of experimental data and is now becoming widely used to identify intermittent or modulated oscillations in ...

Abstract: Two approaches to distinguishing anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol signals in the observed surface temperature record are compared. Both rely on a variant of general regression called ?optimal fingerprinting.? ...

Abstract: A number of linear models of the steady-state response of the tropical atmosphere to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have been proposed, all based on the shallow-water equations. Despite their formal similarity, ...

Abstract: The emission and reflection properties of a rough sea surface are investigated, with particular emphasis on the wavelengths and viewing geometry relevant to the Along Track Scanning Radiometer. The authors start from ...

Abstract: This paper presents an update on the detection and attribution of global annual mean surface air temperature changes, using recently developed climate models. In particular, it applies a new methodology that permits the ...

Abstract: he winter of 2013?14 had unusual weather in many parts of the world. Here we analyze the cold extremes that were widely reported in North America and the lack of cold extremes in western Europe. We perform a statistical ...

Abstract: he ratio of warming to cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide has been shown to be approximately independent of time and emissions scenarios and directly relates emissions to temperature. It is therefore a potentially ...

Abstract: Anthropogenic influences on surface temperature over the second half of the twentieth century are examined using output from two general circulation models (HadCM2 and ECHAM3). Optimal detection techniques involve the ...