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RISRegimes or Cycles in Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The important role of the correct use of statistics in the atmnospheric sciences literature is once again emphasized. Despite previous work on this topic, statistical techniques, even very simple ones, continue to be misused ...
The Impact of Dropwindsonde Data from the THORPEX Pacific Area Regional Campaign and the NOAA Hurricane Field Program on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Global Forecast System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: our aircraft released dropwindsondes in and around tropical cyclones in the west Pacific during The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Area Regional Campaign (T-PARC) in 2008 and the ...
An Alternative Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Verification Technique
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not verify official or model forecasts if those forecasts call for a tropical cyclone to dissipate or if the real tropical cyclone dissipates. A new technique in which these forecasts ...
Five-Day Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts in the North Atlantic Basin
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Statistical analyses of the most recent 40 yr of hurricane tracks (1956?95) are presented, leading to a version of the North Atlantic climatology and persistence (CLIPER) model that exhibits much smaller forecast biases ...
The Prediction of the Performance of a Nested Barotropic Hurricane Track Forecast Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Linear multiple regression and discriminant analyses provide estimates of the errors of track forecasts from a nested barotropic hurricane track forecast model (VICBAR), which was run in the North Atlantic Basin during the ...
Large Forecast Degradations due to Synoptic Surveillance during the 2004 and 2005 Hurricane Seasons
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Though operational tropical cyclone synoptic surveillance generally leads to smaller track forecast errors in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Forecasting System (GFS) than would occur otherwise, ...
10 Years of Hurricane Synoptic Surveillance (1997–2006)
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: In 1997, the National Hurricane Center and the Hurricane Research Division began operational synoptic surveillance missions with the Gulfstream IV-SP jet aircraft to improve the numerical guidance for hurricanes that ...
Two Years of Operational Hurricane Synoptic Surveillance
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: In 1997, the National Hurricane Center and the Hurricane Research Division began operational synoptic surveillance missions with the Gulfstream IV-SP jet aircraft to improve the numerical guidance for hurricanes that ...
The Ensemble of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Models in the North Atlantic Basin (1976–2000)
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The suite of tropical cyclone track forecast models in the Atlantic basin from the 1976 to 2000 hurricane seasons are treated as a forecast ensemble. The 12?h ensemble mean forecast, adjusted for forecast difficulty, has ...
A Climatological Baseline for Assessing the Skill of Tropical Cyclone Phase Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: simple linear discriminant analysis scheme using climatological predictors is derived for the Atlantic basin as a no-skill baseline for operational phase forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The model with ...