“Oops” Simulation: Cost–Benefits Trade-Off Analysis of Reliable Planning for Construction Activities

Abstract

“The Oops Game” explores the question, how much should be invested in planning? The simulation offers the opportunity to reduce the risk of an “Oops” by collecting more information or to go ahead and make the choice with the information at hand. There are two extreme strategies. Nothing is invested in planning in the so-called Guts-ball approach, but this increases the likelihood that an “Oops” will occur and thus increases the cost to complete the project. The second strategy is to invest in planning before attempting to build. This will increase the cost of planning upfront, but may reduce the risk and cost of an “Oops” in building. In reality, the cost and value of planning depends on the complexity level of the project, the amount of uncertainty that we need to deal with it, and the cost of an “Oops.” We used computer simulation to show how the value of planning is sensitive to those factors. The results showed that the project with the reliable planning strategy had a 35% higher productivity and a cost-benefit ratio of