Modeling and Forecasting Monthly Passenger-Load Movement Based on the Elliptic Orbit Algorithmic Model

Abstract

Analysis of the passenger-load movement is of increasing importance for the transportation industry on economic operation and system planning and management, especially in China. In this study, the so-called elliptic orbit algorithmic model is used for describing the monthly passenger-load movement. The elliptic orbit model depicts the passenger-load movement by mapping its movement as one time series to the polar coordinates, in which the angular coordinate corresponds to the time, and the radial coordinate represents the passenger-load movement. Formed elliptical orbit is used to evaluate and forecast the passenger-load movement. The proposed method achieves satisfying experimental results in evaluating and forecasting the monthly passenger-load movements on the railways, highways, waterways, and airlines of China in 2011 and 2012. Result analysis indicates workability of the proposed method that the passenger-load movement is well described by the elliptic orbit model, which provides a vivid description for the passenger-load movement analysis in a concise and intuitive way.