Role of Modeling Uncertainty in the Estimation of Climate and Socioeconomic Impact on River Water Quality

Abstract

Climate is one of the most important factors leading to changes in the hydrologic and environmental characteristics of river basins. When considering water quality, the natural factors should be weighed against anthropogenic factors (such as urbanization, increased population, and higher water demand) that may increase or decrease the effect of climatic modifications. Any prediction of future climatic and anthropogenic scenarios is affected by uncertainty and the modelling tools that are used for evaluating their impact on receiving water bodies. The present paper is aimed at investigating the complexity of such analyses and the uncertainty related to future impact predictions based on limited databases. Specifically, the study is focused on quantifying the impact of urbanization and social changes coupled with climate on river water quality under uncertainty. The study was carried out at a small catchment scale (less than