Integrated Approach to Determining Postreclamation Coastlines

Abstract

An integrated approach is presented for determining the harmonized optimal coastline from given options for large-scale coastal reclamation. The approach incorporates results from hydrodynamic, sediment transport, and water quality models and ecological impact considerations. These models predict reclamation impact on tidal flow, sediment deposition and erosion, and water quality under different scenarios. The impact on sensitive coastal ecosystems is considered indirectly in terms of the qualitative relationship to results from the sediment transport model. The analytical hierarchy process method is applied to determine the weights of various control factors and to integrate the model predictions. A sensitivity analysis is made to assess the effect on the final results of modeling errors and uncertainty in the weights assigned, and thus to enhance the reliability of decision making. Although the methodology given herein emphasizes reclamation in a bay with multifold functions, the procedure is potentially applicable to most coastal reclamation projects, except single-option schemes. An application to Deep Bay coastline is described in the companion paper.