Protection from Nature’s Fury: Analysis of Fatalities and Injuries from F5 Tornadoes

Abstract

Improved technology and warnings seem to have reduced tornado casualties over time. We subject this conventional wisdom to empirical scrutiny by examining the determinants over time of casualties from the strongest (F5) tornadoes in the United States since 1900. We limit analysis to F5 tornadoes to control for the strength of storms and then control for economic and demographic characteristics of the storm paths in a regression analysis of casualties. We find significant negative time trends over the periods 1900 to 1999 when controlling for population density and 1950 to 1999 when also controlling for income. Our results indicate that everything else being equal, fatalities from an F5 tornado were 40% lower in 1999 than 1950 and 90% lower in 1999 than 1900.