Risk Factors of Structural Degradation of an Urban Water Distribution System

Abstract

The research team evaluates whether a proportional hazards model can successfully be applied to a water distribution piping network located in a complex urban area in order to identify which risk factors play a role in the failure of urban water pipes, to what extent, and, for each pipe, to forecast the number of future breaks. Risk factors can be inherent to the pipe (material, diameter, length, date of installation, break history) or reflecting environmental conditions (traffic, water zone, proximity to subways, highways.) Long Island City, an area of New York City with 220 miles of water pipes and 20 years of break data (1982–2002) constitutes the case study. Various conditions of applicability pertaining to the stratification of the data based on material, break frequency, and history are examined.