Infrastructure Risk Analysis Model

Abstract

One key element of our nation's infrastructure is our communities' drinking water supplies. Growing consumption by expanding populations, industrial and public pollution, the tragedies of both nature and human accidents, and the emergence of threats by domestic terrorists, disgruntled employees, and computer hackers continue to torment the nation. Add to these concerns the anxiety over Y2K failures of the utilities that control these systems; they all pose potential perils to freshwater reserves that local municipalities, state, and federal governments are obligated to protect. This paper serves to introduce the probabilistic infrastructure risk analysis model developed for a small community's water supply and treatment systems. The paper adopts a holistic approach to model a water infrastructure system's interconnectedness and interdependencies. This approach can also be used for other interconnected infrastructure elements such as physical facilities, electric power generation and distribution, and telecommunications. Insurance companies, municipal managers, utility companies, etc., can use this technique to develop scenarios and quantify the value of countermeasures.