Quantitative Assessment of Carbon Reduction From Electrification of Heating in Urban Buildings

Abstract

Abstract. Large cities in cold climates face profound challenges in reducing carbon emissions while meeting substantial heating demands—particularly where dense, aging building stock relies on conventional fuels. This study situates New York City (NYC) within a comparative global analysis of cities with populations over 2 million with high heating degree days (HDD), population densities, and total heating burdens. NYC, which has committed to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 80% below 2005 levels by 2050, serves as a case study for the feasibility of deep decarbonization through building electrification. Based on 2022 verified energy consumption data, US Environmental Protection Agency emissions factors, and modeled future scenarios, our analysis shows that buildings accounted for 62% of NYC's emissions—primarily from natural gas and fossil fuel-based electricity. Full electrification of space and water heating would add 29.96 terawatt-hours (TWh) to annual electricity demand, an 80% increase over 2022 levels. However, expected renewable additions from upcoming and proposed solutions, Champlain Hudson Power Express (10.4 TWh), Empire Wind I (2.43 TWh), and rooftop solar (11.6 TWh), would cover only 37% of this new demand. Achieving an 80% reduction in building emissions would require that 76.8% of electricity be supplied by low-emission sources. In the context of international peers with similar heating and density profiles, NYC's trajectory reveals the scale of infrastructure acceleration needed. These findings offer a quantitative framework for assessing urban building decarbonization across high-demand global cities.