Decision Framework for Efficient Risk Mitigation in BOT Highway Infrastructure Service Projects

Abstract

Revenue risk is the most critical factor that hampers the long-term viability of highway infrastructure service projects. This paper develops an integrated multi-method decision framework to evaluate and compare multiple revenue risk mitigation strategies for build-operate-transfer (BOT) highway infrastructure concessions. Using the project data of a real highway BOT case project in India, this paper models and evaluates various risk mitigation strategies on different performance metrics using Monte Carlo simulation analysis. The technical efficiencies of the risk mitigation strategies are estimated using data envelopment analysis (DEA) and efficient strategies are identified. The findings suggest that strategies comprising appropriate combinations of minimum revenue guarantee, excess revenue share, and revenue shortfall loan mitigate the revenue risk most efficiently. The decision framework and the findings facilitate efficient public infrastructure contract design by policymakers and set multiple research directions.