The Different Relationships between the ENSO Spring Persistence Barrier and Predictability Barrier

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) spring persistence barrier (PB) and predictability barrier (PD) and apply it to explain the interdecadal modulation of ENSO prediction skill using the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC). Previous studies showed that a longer persistence (i.e., autocorrelation) tends to produce a higher prediction skill. Using the recharge oscillator model of ENSO, both analytical and numerical solutions suggest that the predictability (i.e., ACC) is related to the persistence of sea surface temperature (SST) and cross correlation between SST and subsurface ocean heat content in the tropical Pacific. In particular, a larger damping rate in SST anomalies will lead to a lower persistence and ACC and a stronger PD. However, a shortened ENSO period, which controls the cross correlation, will lead to a lower persistence but a higher ACC associated with a weaker PD. Finally, we apply our solutions to observations and suggest that a higher ACC associated with a weaker PD after 1960 is caused by the shortened ENSO period.