Urban Sprawl Susceptibility Analysis of Sialkot City by Using Multicriteria Evaluation and Analytical Hierarchy Process

Abstract

Cities have been growing rapidly over the past 30 years. This urban growth requires proper planning for sustainable development. Considering the possible future urban planning problems to Sialkot city, Pakistan, it is taken as a study area because of its significance as an industrial and economically emerging city. This study applied Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information Systems (GISs) to recognize, compute, analyze, and plot urban sprawl susceptibility. A multicriteria evaluation method was used, employing factors such as land cover, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), population density, and road proximity as inputs. The weights of all input factors were estimated according to urban sprawl dynamics between the years 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used for Sialkot city to assess the susceptibility of urban sprawl and pattern. The outcomes showed that 118 km2 (45%) of the area was not susceptible, 62 km2 (24%) was slightly susceptible, while 42 km2 (16%) was restrained susceptible, and 38 km2 (15%) was extremely susceptible to urban sprawl. We found a linear scattered and leapfrog sprawl pattern in the study area. The substantial variations in the field of study for 30 years showed threats for fertile farming land and other natural resources, consequently threatening the production and security of food. The findings of this research would aid the government in monitoring and estimating susceptible sprawl to prevent agricultural land and ecology.