Earthquake Risk–Management Model for Historic Commercial Urban Fabrics

Abstract

Historic urban settings, including traditional marketplaces and bazaars are highly vulnerable to earthquakes, owing to their physical conditions and socioeconomic functionality. Thus, formulation of risk-reduction plans for such areas should be carefully considered as a priority for local officials. In this paper, a new model is proposed to first assess the underlying risk associated with heritage bazaars and then to work out solutions to mitigate the prevailing level of risk. Here, components of seismic risk, i.e., hazard, vulnerability, and response capacity have been categorized into subclasses, bringing more details to the analysis. The importance factor of risk indices is determined by expert opinion, benefiting from relevant past studies. The results could provide more information on the effectiveness of risk reduction interventions at heritage sites. The proposed model has been applied to the historic bazaar of Ardebil in Iran and a number of mitigation measures were suggested according to its seismic risk profile.