The Northeast Winter Monsoon over the Indian Subcontinent and Southeast Asia: Evolution, Interannual Variability, and Model Simulations

Abstract

The northeast monsoon (NEM) brings the bulk of annual rainfall to southeastern peninsular India, Sri Lanka, and the neighboring Southeast Asian countries. This October?December monsoon is referred to as the winter monsoon in this region. In contrast, the southwest summer monsoon brings bountiful rainfall to the Indo-Gangetic Plain. The winter monsoon region is objectively demarcated from analysis of the timing of peak monthly rainfall. Because of the region?s complex terrain, in situ precipitation datasets are assessed using high-spatiotemporal-resolution Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall estimates, prior to their use in monsoon evolution, variability, and trend analyses. The Global Precipitation Climatology Center?s in situ analysis showed the least bias from TRMM.El Niño?Southern Oscillation?s (ENSO) impact on NEM rainfall is shown to be significant, leading to stronger NEM rainfall over southeastern peninsular India and Sri Lanka but diminished rainfall over Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines. The impact varies subseasonally, being weak in October and strong in November. The positive anomalies over peninsular India are generated by anomalous anticyclonic flow centered over the Bay of Bengal, which is forced by an El Niño?related reduction in deep convection over the Maritime Continent.The historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?s Fifth Assessment (IPCC-AR5) show varied deficiencies in the NEM rainfall distribution and a markedly weaker (and often unrealistic) ENSO?NEM rainfall relationship.