Measuring the Potential for Toxic Exposure from Storm Surge and Sea-Level Rise: Analysis of Coastal Virginia

Abstract

Recent tropical cyclones in the United States have underscored the potential for such storms to expose large numbers of people to potentially high levels of toxic contamination when industrial and waste facilities are overwhelmed by storm surge and heavy precipitation. This paper presents a method for identifying the spatial distribution of toxic sites and materials relative to storm surge and flooding risk. The paper first describes development of a toxic exposure index using a principal component analysis and implements it for census tracts in coastal Virginia. The paper then shows calculation of a physical exposure index for those same tracts and, following the hazards-of-place framework, presents the use of that to identify tracts with the highest risk of exposure to toxics during storm surge and flooding events. States and local government can use this approach to identify areas with the greatest risk in their jurisdiction so that they can develop appropriate plans to further investigate and deal with that risk. Though the focus of this study is on coastal Virginia, the methods used here are easily transferrable to other parts of the United States.