Model for Collecting Replacement Cycles of Building Components: Hybrid Approach of Indirect and Direct Estimations

Abstract

Building maintenance, repair, and replacement (MR&R) costs are estimated to be two to three times larger than initial construction costs. Thus, it is important to accurately estimate and manage MR&R costs in the planning phase and/or design phase of a construction project based on life cycle cost analysis (LCCA). However, the nature of LCCA requires making necessary assumptions for the prediction and analysis of MR&R costs, and the reliability of the assumptions greatly impacts LCCA results. In particular, determining reasonable replacement cycles is especially important given that each replacement typically involves a significant amount of capital. However, conventional approaches largely focus on either collecting component-specific replacement cases or surveying expert opinions, both of which reduce the usability and reliability of replacement cycle data at an early stage. To overcome these limitations, this study aims to develop a replacement cycle collection model that can expedite the data collection by combining indirect estimations with direct estimations. The development of the model involves collecting replacement cases, developing replacement cycle and index estimation methods, and developing an algorithm to implement the suggested model. As a validation, the applicability and effectiveness of the model were illustrated and tested by using simulated cases based on 21 real-world facilities. This study makes a theoretical contribution to the body of knowledge by developing a replacement cycle data collection model based on long-term and macro perspectives. The developed model will also be of value to practitioners when they try to improve the reliability of their LCCA.