Accounting for Model Error from Unresolved Scales in Ensemble Kalman Filters by Stochastic Parameterization

Abstract

AbstractThe use of discrete-time stochastic parameterization to account for model error due to unresolved scales in ensemble Kalman filters is investigated by numerical experiments. The parameterization quantifies the model error and produces an improved non-Markovian forecast model, which generates high quality forecast ensembles and improves filter performance. Results are compared with the methods of dealing with model error through covariance inflation and localization (IL), using as an example the two-layer Lorenz-96 system. The numerical results show that when the ensemble size is sufficiently large, the parameterization is more effective in accounting for the model error than IL; if the ensemble size is small, IL is needed to reduce sampling error, but the parameterization further improves the performance of the filter. This suggests that in real applications where the ensemble size is relatively small, the filter can achieve better performance than pure IL if stochastic parameterization methods are combined with IL.