Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Economic Losses from Tropical Cyclones in Affected Provinces of China for the Last 30 Years (1984–2013)

Abstract

In this study, the characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) and their economic losses in China for a 30-year period (1984–2013) are analyzed on a provincial scale. The TC parameters are quantitatively analyzed for inherent trends and cycles using the Mann-Kendall test and the fast Fourier power spectrum. Different normalization methods are applied to attribute socioeconomic factors to the increasing original economic losses. These losses are normalized with the consumer price index, the conventional as well as the alternative normalization method. The frequency of maximum economic losses from TC events is expressed in return periods as calculated with the generalized extreme value distribution function. The results show a noticeable shift to stronger TCs within detected strong cycles of 5 and 11–13 years, but no significant trends in the climatic parameters related to TCs. The numbers of affected population and the TC intensities in inland provinces have been especially amplified. Results of the different normalization methods show that by considering population growth, urbanization, and economic development, the economic losses per capita did not increase but rather stabilized. The original economic losses from TCs increased during the period of 1984–2013, with 2013 being the most costly TC year. In comparison, the conventional and alternative normalized economic losses have not increased and instead saw 1996 as the most costly TC year. Based on the return periods of probable maximum losses per TC, it is shown that the TC event with the highest losses in 2013, i.e., Typhoon Fitow, is a 23-year event if the losses are adjusted with the consumer price index, but more realistically a 3.5-year event if the conventional normalization method is considered. In conclusion, with economic development and urbanization, China’s vulnerability and exposure to tropical cyclones has increased, while the normalized economic losses from TCs did not rise.