Probability Models of Weather Conditions Occupying a Line or an Area

Abstract

Single-station climatic probability of a meteorological condition can be estimated from a set of observations taken at the station. The probability, however, of the same condition prevailing along a line of sight or line of travel or in an area or fraction thereof is not so readily obtained. The aproach to this problem has been to model the spatial variability and to determine the values of model parameters. In the absence of an analytical solution a simulation technique involving random number generation was used to obtain answers that are presented in graphical form. Two models have been developed, one effective with upper air temperature fields. The other, and more interesting model, is effective with mesoscale phenomena (such as rainfall) in areas ranging from a few hundred square kilometers up to 100 000 km2.