Making Forecasts Meaningful: Explanations of Problematic Predictions in Northeast Brazil

Abstract

his study illustrates the need to consider the multiple interpretations and experiences that influence how climate forecasts are evaluated in local contexts when assessing how useful forecasts can be for increasing the resilience of rural communities. Video clips of predictions made by scientific and traditional forecasters were shown in interviews and focus groups to elicit explanations for why the predictions are sometimes judged to be inaccurate, not useful, or inappropriately communicated by different sectors of the rural population in Ceará, Northeast Brazil. Results indicate that climate forecasts are not simply a decision-making tool that provides information in a one-way transfer from forecaster to user. The meanings and values of predictions are jointly created by both forecasters and their audiences. Predictions and the discussions that surround them are also an important part of expressing social identities and ideas about how the world works. Ineffective predictions are explained here in terms of religious beliefs, environmental change, forecaster identity, interactional context, and cultural practices.