Inactive Period of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity in 1998–2011

Abstract

ropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) exhibits a significant interdecadal variation during 1960?2011, with two distinct active and inactive periods each. This study examines changes in TC activity and atmospheric conditions in the recent inactive period (1998?2011). The overall TC activity shows a significant decrease, which is partly related to the decadal variation of TC genesis frequency in the southeastern part of the WNP and the downward trend of TC genesis frequency in the main development region.The investigation on the factors responsible for the low TC activity mainly focuses on the effect of vertical wind shear and subtropical high on multidecadal time scales. A vertical wind shear index, defined as the mean magnitude of the difference of the 200- and 850-hPa horizontal zonal winds (10°?17.5°N, 150°E?180°) averaged between June and October, is highly correlated with the annual TC number and shows a significant interdecadal variation. Positive anomalies of vertical wind shear are generally found in the eastern part of the tropical WNP during this inactive period. A subtropical high area index, calculated as the area enclosed by the 5880-gpm line of the June?October 500-hPa geopotential height (0°?40°N, 100°E?180°), shows a significant upward trend. A high correlation is also found between this index and the annual TC number, and a stronger-than-normal subtropical high is generally observed during this inactive period. The strong vertical wind shear and strong subtropical high observed during 1998?2011 together apparently lead to unfavorable atmospheric conditions for TC genesis and hence the low TC activity during the period.