Spatiotemporal Patterns and Return Periods of Tropical Storm and Hurricane Strikes from Texas to Maine

Abstract

The authors analyze 105 yr (1901?2005) of tropical cyclone strikes at 45 coastal locations from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine, with the primary objective of examining spatiotemporal patterns of storm activity. Interpretation of the data suggests that geographically, three focal points for activity are evident: south Florida, the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and the north-central Gulf Coast. Temporally, clusters of hyperactivity are evident in south Florida from the 1920s through the 1950s and then again during the most recent years. North Carolina was a region of enhanced activity in the 1950s and again in the 1990s. A more consistent rate of occurrence was found along the north-central Gulf Coast; the last two years, however, were active in this region. Return periods of tropical storm strength systems or greater range from a frequency of once every 2 yr along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, every three years on average in southeast Texas, southeastern Louisiana, and southern Florida, and about once every 10?15 yr in northern New England. Hurricane return periods range from 5 yr in southern Florida to 105+ years at several sheltered portions of the coastline (e.g., near Cedar Key, Florida, Georgia, and the northeastern seaboard), where some locations experienced only one strike, or no strikes through the entire period of record. Severe hurricane (category 3?5) return periods range from once every 15 yr in South Florida to 105+ in New England.