| contributor author | Murphy, Allan H. | |
| contributor author | Epstein, Edward S. | |
| date accessioned | 2017-06-09T16:52:56Z | |
| date available | 2017-06-09T16:52:56Z | |
| date copyright | 1967/12/01 | |
| date issued | 1967 | |
| identifier issn | 0021-8952 | |
| identifier other | ams-7589.pdf | |
| identifier uri | http://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4218277 | |
| description abstract | The consideration of a maxim and a statement, both of which are concerned with ?hedging? on the part of meteorologists who prepare probability forecasts, leads to the identification of a property which all proper scoring systems for such forecasts should possess. A scoring system, to be proper, should encourage the meteorologist to make his probabilities correspond to his true beliefs. The conditions which a proper scoring system must satisfy are formulated in mathematical terms. Several existing scoring systems are examined to ascertain whether or not the systems are proper. | |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
| title | A Note on Probability Forecasts and “Hedging” | |
| type | Journal Paper | |
| journal volume | 6 | |
| journal issue | 6 | |
| journal title | Journal of Applied Meteorology | |
| identifier doi | 10.1175/1520-0450(1967)006<1002:ANOPFA>2.0.CO;2 | |
| journal fristpage | 1002 | |
| journal lastpage | 1004 | |
| tree | Journal of Applied Meteorology:;1967:;volume( 006 ):;issue: 006 | |
| contenttype | Fulltext | |