On the Further Development of Gringorten's Stochastic Model for Climatological Predictions

Abstract

A statistical model based on a Monte Carlo simulation technique has been proposed by Gringorten for making estimates of the duration and frequency of weather events. The model was evaluated and its predictive results tested. Two major problems have been found?a high input requirement and systematic errors in the estimates. The errors were analyzed to determine required modifications of the model. It is the contention of this paper that both problems can be resolved and that the further development of the otherwise promising model should be continued.