Categorizing the Meteorological Origins of Critical Ramp Events in Collective Photovoltaic Array Output

Abstract

hotovoltaic (PV) solar power use is increasing globally. The Australian Capital Territory (ACT) has legislated a renewable energy target of 90% by 2020; to reach this target, use of distributed PV solar arrays is expected to increase. Cloud cover can cause the power output of PV installations to rapidly increase or decrease, resulting in ACT-wide collective ramp events. Accurate forecasts of when the ramp events will occur are needed for electricity providers to plan for these abrupt output changes and to ensure that electricity supplies remain stable. This paper categorizes the weather events that cause changes in the output of rooftop PV arrays in the ACT, providing a foundation for future PV output forecasting to be based on weather event identification. This paper identifies citywide collective ramp events, which occur when a 60% change in collective PV power output (with respect to the clear-sky potential) is experienced within 60 min. Such events are termed critical collective ramp events. Throughout the period between January 2012 and July 2014, 34 critical ramp events occurred. Eighteen of these events were positive collective ramp events, caused most frequently by Australian northwest cloud bands and radiation fog dissipation. Sixteen negative collective ramp events were recorded, and they were caused most frequently by the passage of cold fronts and thunderstorms. The categories developed herein will make it possible to improve short-term solar forecasting methods and to enable meteorologists to contribute to forecasting critical events.