Global Warming, El Niño, and High-Impact Storms at Extreme Altitude: Historical Trends and Consequences for Mountaineers

Abstract

he twentieth century was bracketed by two high-profile events on Mount Everest: the 1924 Mallory and Irvine disappearance and the 1996 Into Thin Air storm. During both events, fatalities occurred high on the mountain during deteriorating weather conditions. Although there have been dramatic improvements in knowledge of the mountain and in the technology used on it, it is shown that an unappreciated change that has also occurred, as a result of warming in the region, is an increase in barometric pressure. A rare and unique set of meteorological data collected at various elevations on the mountain during the 1924 British Everest expedition as well as modern datasets are used to compare and contrast conditions during the two storms and the two climbing seasons. It is shown that both storms were associated with weather systems known locally as western disturbances that resulted in summit barometric pressure drops sufficient to have exacerbated altitude-induced hypoxia. It is further shown that the Mallory and Irvine attempt occurred later in the season than typically is the case now and that this was most likely the result of a concurrent El Niño event. Despite the trend of increasing barometric pressure, the pressure drop associated with storms in the region should remain a concern for those who venture to extreme altitudes. The authors therefore argue that success and failure on Everest and other Himalayan peaks requires knowledge of the variability and trends in both the weather and climate.