Comparison of Methods for Determining Probable Impact Areas in Planning Short Range Instrumented Balloon Flights

Abstract

Circular normal and elliptical normal wind distributions weighted for ascent and descent time as well as flight level time are compared with the distributions when weighted only at the flight level of the balloon. Durations of 3 and 12 hours at flight level are studied using wind data for Fairbanks, Alaska; Columbia, Missouri; and Albrook, Canal Zone, for the winter and summer seasons. Flight levels considered are 300 mb and 10 mb. The methods are discussed and compared for the possibility of eliminating extensive calculations in determining probable impact areas. It is concluded that there are many cases where this can be accomplished.