SYSTEMATIC ERRORS IN OPERATIONAL NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTER PRIMITIVE-EQUATION SURFACE PROGNOSES

Abstract

This paper describes an attempt to find systematic errors in the sea-level forecasts produced by the operational six layer primitive-equation model of the National Meteorological Center, Suitland, Md. The sample of cases studied contains 417 storms from the winter of 1969?1970. Several systematic errors exist. Over the oceans, the model does not forecast storms deep enough. Storms forming on the lee slopes of the Rocky Mountains are forecast too deep and too warm. Storms fill more slowly and deepen more rapidly than the model predicts. Strongly deepening cyclones move to the left of the forecast track.